How to Re-Close Unsold HVAC Estimates After the 25C Credit Ended

The 25C heat pump credit ended for systems installed after 2025. How to segment unsold HVAC estimates, rebuild the price story, and follow up legally.

Through 2025, the easiest line in a heat pump proposal was the federal credit: 30% back, up to $2,000. Plenty of homeowners heard it, kept the proposal, and said they would do it after the holidays. Those quotes are still sitting in your CRM, and the line that sold them stopped working on January 1.

What is an unsold HVAC estimate?

An unsold HVAC estimate is a replacement or install quote your team delivered in the home that the homeowner never signed and never turned down. It sits between a fresh lead and a dead one. You already walked the house, sized the system, and put a price in front of the people who pay the bill.

An unsold estimate is a delivered, priced proposal with no signature and no explicit no. In HVAC it is usually a replacement quote: the homeowner knows the price, has met your advisor, and still owns the aging system.

The roofing version of this list runs on storm timing, which we covered in how to reactivate unsold roofing estimates. HVAC runs on a different clock: equipment age, the heating season, and this year a tax credit that expired.

What happened to heat pump quotes when the 25C credit ended?

They lost their best closing line. The Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit covered 30% of qualifying costs, up to $2,000 a year for a qualifying heat pump, and the IRS allows it only for property placed in service by December 31, 2025. A 2025 quote installed in 2026 gets no credit at all.

The detail that matters for your pile: the IRS ties the credit to the tax year the property is installed. The purchase date does not count. A homeowner who took your quote in October and planned to install in the spring lost up to $2,000 without noticing. Some of them still think the credit applies. Your first follow-up has to get this right, because a homeowner who hears it from their accountant after signing will blame your company.

So say it in the first message. It is the honest move, and a competitor who skips it hands you the trust edge.

What can replace the tax credit in the pitch?

For some homeowners, a bigger number. The federal Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates run through state energy offices and can cover up to $8,000 for an ENERGY STAR heat pump. The catch is eligibility: it is income-limited, and your state has to have launched its program.

The DOE fact sheet puts coverage at up to 100% of costs for lower-income households and up to 50% for moderate-income households, and only households under 150% of area median income qualify. The Department of Energy's program page says the rebates are available in select states and points homeowners to their state energy office. Check yours before anyone sends a text. Promising a rebate your state has not launched does more damage than leaving it out.

• HEAR rebates, where your state has launched and the household qualifies on income
• Utility rebates, which vary by territory; the ENERGY STAR rebate finder looks them up by ZIP code
• Financing that turns the lost credit into a monthly payment figure
• A re-scoped system, such as a different efficiency tier or a dual-fuel setup at a lower installed price
• Timing: a planned October install gives the homeowner a choice of equipment that a January emergency swap does not

How should you segment unsold HVAC estimates?

By what the quote was for and what stalled it. A 2025 heat pump quote sold partly on the credit needs a different first message than a furnace quote the homeowner passed on because the old unit still ran. Export quote date, equipment type, quoted amount and the advisor's notes, then sort before anyone picks up a phone.

Work the 2025 heat pump segment first. Those homeowners are carrying the most outdated information, and some of it came from your own proposal.

The end of the credit did not end heat pump demand. AHRI's May 2026 release shows year-to-date heat pump shipments up 1.4% to 1,738,011 units, while gas furnace shipments fell 10.5% over the same period. Shipments measure units that left manufacturers and say nothing direct about installs, and AHRI says it does no market forecasting. Still, the equipment is moving, and the homeowners in your pile still need heat this winter.

What does a follow-up sequence for stalled HVAC quotes look like?

Three weeks, built around the original quote and the heating season. You can reference a real visit, a real system and a real price, which a cold campaign cannot. Send it from the advisor who was in the house, and start before the first cold snap fills your board with emergency calls.

• Day 1: Text from the original advisor. Name the month of the visit and ask one question: did the system get replaced?
• Day 2: Call everyone who replied. A revived quote goes cold again fast if it sits.
• Day 4: Email the original proposal with a short, accurate note on what changed: the credit, current rebates, current pricing.
• Day 9: Second text to non-responders, written for their segment.
• Day 16: Final call, then a message that makes not now an easy answer.
• Day 21: Anyone still quiet moves to a quarterly touch and onto your maintenance agreement list.

Reply speed decides how many of these become appointments. ServiceTitan's 2026 Residential State of the Trades survey found more than half of contractors respond to new leads within the first hour, and a revived estimate deserves the same treatment. The wider benchmarks are in our speed-to-lead statistics.

The full build, from list hygiene to reply handling, is in how to run a 30-day lead reactivation campaign. The broader HVAC list strategy lives in the HVAC database reactivation playbook.

What are the texting rules for old HVAC estimates?

A homeowner who booked an in-home estimate gave you their number for a reason, which puts you in a stronger position than a bought list. The rules still apply. Federal regulations bar telephone solicitation to a residential subscriber before 8 a.m. or after 9 p.m., local time at the called party's location.

Have documented consent before sending marketing texts, keep a working opt-out in every message, and honor every revocation permanently. Register for A2P 10DLC before the first send, because carriers block unregistered application-to-person traffic. We cover the detail in the TCPA rules for texting old leads. This is general information, not legal advice; have your own counsel review the sequence.

Is re-closing old estimates cheaper than buying new HVAC leads?

Yes, on the cost to start a conversation. LocaliQ's benchmark of 3,211 U.S. home services search campaigns puts the median cost per lead at $127.74 for air conditioning and $129.02 for heating and furnaces, measured April 2024 through March 2025. Restarting an unsold estimate carries no media cost.

Contractors are already leaning this way. In the ServiceTitan survey of 1,000 residential contractors, 53% pointed to customer retention against 31% for new customer acquisition. ServiceTitan states it gives no assurances on the accuracy of the survey data, so read it as sentiment rather than performance.

We've found reactivation campaigns produce response rates in the 2 to 5 percent range. Every name in the estimate pile let an advisor into the house, which a cold form fill never did. Count booked installs. A reply is only the start.

Past customers who never bought an agreement are the other list worth working this fall; that play is in the September maintenance agreement campaign. If you want your own estimate pile sized and segmented, that is what our lead reactivation service does.

Start with one report this week: every replacement quote delivered since January 2025 with no signature and no decline. Pull out the heat pump quotes and text those homeowners first, with the credit facts right in the first line.